What would Tony do?

As the problems confronting our beleaguered PM continue to mount, I wonder if he ever stops to ask himself "what would Tony do?"















Bow out shortly before the chickens come home to roost and let his successor cop the blame as he struggles to sort things out ...

Ruth Kelly reaction

Well Gordon now has a little more room for manoeuvre in his reshuffle than was the case yesterday. Fraser Nelson reckons she jumped instead of being pushed. His theory is plausible, but so is the official line. Personally I suspect it’s a combination. Kelly’s seat is pretty marginal (85th on the notional Tory target list) and I suspect she will now be focusing on it intensively. If she were to lose she has a young family (four to date) to support, so will be relieved not to be restricted by the two year purdah that former ministers are expected to observe before working in fields with which they were connected whilst in office.

Kelly is an amazingly bright and driven woman whose officials had a high regard for. She is still young enough to have reasonable hopes of ministerial office again, assuming of course that she retains her seat and that there is a Labour government to serve in.

Reshuffle wise, Democritus tips Jim Murphy for promotion and will be watching to see what happens to Douglas Alexander …

UPDATE: Jim got Scotland. No change for Douggie ...

Hard Labour

‘Need not greed’ seemed to me to be the main theme running through the PMs speech to Labour’s Conference this afternoon. It was a fairly good speech delivered with authority and it will probably shore-up the PMs position for at least the next 3-4 months. The Labour government however still appears doomed come May 2010.

Brown can expect his “No return to boom and bust” soundbite to be hurled back at him relentlessly next week. Like George Bush Snr’s “Read my lips. No new taxes.” Pledge, the aspiration was always unrealistic and beyond the power of any individual politician to deliver however powerful the office s/he holds. The consequences of the credit crunch are already apparent on main street, but the full impact will take months to feed through and rightly or wrongly Gordon Brown will cop a load of blame. Nor have his government’s troubles been purely down to the turmoil in the massive, impersonal global finance markets. The bottling of calling an election 12 months ago, the 10p tax fiasco, hesitation over nationalising Northern Rock, 42 days and the overall impression of a dysfunctional No 10 falling back on gimmicks and appearing out of control all ultimately can be laid at the PM’s door. The only reason he remains in office is that most players in the senior reaches of the party are unpersuaded that unseating him would save their careers. No alternative leader could escape the economic crunch currently gathering pace. Moreover Labour has already ditched one PM during this parliament and repeating the exercise would risk the party and government becoming so riven as be incapable of being led by anybody!

Brown therefore has a stay of execution, but if he fails to get a grip on his government the calculation come next summer may well see him eased out by Jack Straw et al. Short of hoping for a Falklands war or David Cameron to self destruct there is only a very limited amount the PM can do to change the weather. Quite simply the cupboard is bare, people are fed up and the frontbench resembles a range of exhausted, spent volcanoes. There will be a reshuffle shortly, but Brown’s political position is too perilous for him to dare to let go of many further big beasts, and nor are there so many stellar ministers of state to step up. There are no certainties in politics and one can never be sure what’s coming round the next corner, but Brown and Labour are probably in terminal trouble. It will be for Brown’s successor, whomever s/he may be and whether before May 2010 or not to lead the recovery – and it will not be an easy job!